The Heat Is On

We're living in interesting times. The first tropical storm of the hurricane season formed yesterday off Belize. The L.A. Lakers and the Boston Celtics are in the NBA finals, just like old times. And today, Hillary Clinton wins big over Barack Obama in Puerto Rico's Democratic primary, by some 140,000 votes. I guess somebody forgot to translate "It's over" into Spanish for them.

Unless, of course, it isn't. We should have some idea tomorrow morning, if Larry Johnson at No Quarter, a Democrat blog, isn't blowing smoke. He claims that he will be posting an explosive video clip featuring Michelle Obama by 9:00 a.m. Monday. It's bad enough when a candidate's preacher says unpalatable things, but if they're seen and heard coming from his wife, that could be the last straw for some people. So the questions are does the video really exist, and if so, how bad is it? Having seen video clips of Mrs. Obama on the campaign trail, it doesn't seem improbable to me that she would be caught saying something controversial.

The key thing to remember is that Democrat superdelegates are not bound to vote for either candidate. They are not pledged delegates, even if they have already taken a stand one way or the other. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton will have enough pledged delegates by the end of the primary process to win without the majority of the superdelegates, and if something makes one of the candidates politically radioactive, the superdelegates are free to move to the candidate they consider to be more electable in November. The reality is that sort of thing could conceivably happen to either candidate, so while Obama may look like he's got the nomination wrapped up, it won't be signed, sealed and delivered until the superdelegates cast their votes at the convention in Denver.

Update 06/02/2008 09:30 a.m EDT: So far, no video. Lots of blowing smoke, no fire yet. But keep hope alive! The latest rumors at No Quarter are that the rumored tape includes both Louis Farrakhan and Michelle Obama. Hopefully it will come out before the Obama inaugural.